3 Stock Picks That Could Become The Next 5x-10x Multibagger [TFC 130]

If you are a firm believer of this idea, of trying to find companies at a great price then hey, you shouldn’t be too sad. It’s a good time. Open up your eyes, open up your ears, start to observe what’s going on and maybe… Maybe you can find your multibaggers. Today, I’m going to share with you some of my thoughts and some of the companies that I am looking at, so welcome back. 

Okay, so we are back with another “stock pick” kind of episode, which is very popular. Very popular in the content space and I know some of you also really like it, like “hey, what is in your purview? What are you looking at? Wow, market come down, what’s happening?” 

I know a lot of people like this. I’m a little bit on the fence. Generally, I don’t like to do these kind of content because I know a lot of people will listen and then, “oh yeah, yeah, yeah. Very good, very good. Let’s just buy” and I’m like, “oh my god, do you know what you’re doing?” 

I will say for the sake of viewership and also to meet your needs… because we are in the content business, we need to meet your needs. At the same time, keeping to my values and holding to my moral grounds, I’m going to share with you some of the stocks in my purview, like what I’m looking at. 

But at the same time, take this opportunity to continue to expand on some ideas that you should think of when looking at different stocks. Try to understand them at a different time of their growth and different situations that you are buying them in. 

Needless to say, recently, there has been a pretty crazy drop. Some people are very concerned like, “oh, I was making money the past two years and then what’s happening now?” I was like, “okay, welcome to the stock market”. Finally, you’re maturing into a little bit more of an investor. 

I remember about my first time when I had this kind of collapse. I’m like, “oh my god, I cannot sleep”. I am with you. I know what you’re doing. I know what you’re going through. But of course, if you’re a seasoned (investor) and you’ve been through this, (you’re) a little bit more stable and probably a little bit more excited, I would say. Second timer, third timer will be a little bit more excited because they may had that kind of growth experience right after the stock market collapsed. Which means, when there’s blood on the streets and then some people went to buy some things and after a few years… “wow!” Hey, good things (happen) to a lot of you guys that have made some money in the markets over the years. 

I know recently there are a lot of articles going around. “How Would I Play This Drop?” “I Have Started Buying. What Would I Buy?” investQuest came out with the article, Financial Horse came out with the article. I’m sure Thomas is giving a lot of articles at Steady Compounding. You should tag all of them if you want them to come on our show, to expand a little bit more on their thought processes. Just share this episode on your social and tag them and say that “you must come on the show, talk a little bit more about your thing”. 

And of course, as the leading financial podcaster, I have to put up my views also and join in this thing but I would say, okay… please remember this, very important announcement. Everything from this point onwards are for education and entertainment purposes only. (It) should not be construed as financial advice or solicitation to buy any stock. Very important disclaimer. 

And with that, we can begin the juicy discussion, the stocks that I’m looking at. I would like to put it out there that I do not just own these stocks. There’re a lot of these other companies that people are talking about. A little bit of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust), a little bit of the big tech. I do own a little bit of all of them, not everything, but I just… Why do I say that? I want to say that because I don’t want it to be a case where you think I only own this three companies. It just happened to be some of the stuff that I’m thinking of.

If you have other interesting companies that you want me to think about or have us geek out on our other shows, you can always tag us on our Telegram or tag us on our socials and yes, email in (at) hello@thefinancialcoconut.com. 

To begin, I want to expand a little bit on this idea of growth stocks. A lot of people are using this word in a very fluid fashion. Some people are like growth in the companies. Some people are like growth in the fundamentals. Some people are like growth in the stock price, and what have you. 

For me, while I’m looking at the fundamentals of the company, when I look at something as a growth stock, I’m really looking at trying to get a 5-bagger, 10-bagger, which means a company that can 5x and 10x for me, which is why to me, the market cap is important, also known as the total cost of this whole company. How much is this whole company worth? Look at market cap and not single stock price. I will not talk about it today. I assume you already know if you’re going to continue this discussion with me.

Okay, so the whole market cap is important. Why? Because a company that is like $5 billion company, can 10x to $50 billion… (it is) not uncommon. A lot of companies are $50 billion, $100 billion today. But a company that is already 5 trillion… Okay, don’t have… A company that’s already $1 trillion, you want it to 5x, become $5 trillion, I don’t know. I feel like (it’s) a bit hard. Not impossible… it’ll be a slow grind, maybe 20 years, 30 years, which is not a bad thing also but a bit hard. 

Which is why a lot of people want to look at smaller companies. For me, the sweet spot is somewhere about $10, $20 billion. Usually when a company can enter this range of pricing, it does suggests that they have already covered a certain space in the market. That means they are serious player in this game already. They’re not one of those $800 million listing or $1 billion listing, hoping to raise money to anchor themselves in this space.

They already have a serious anchor in this environment that they play in, depending on which environment they are and they are trying to vie for the big pie. They are trying to become dominant and that is what I want. A decently-sized company, $10, $20 billion that is trying to vie for dominance, eventually getting me that 5, 10x of my return. 

Of course, at a $10, $20 billion valuation, I’m expecting these companies to be at a fair value. That means, price-to-earnings, price-to-sales, or even cashflow, they all look fine. They’re not like, “wow, crazy. So expensive for these companies.” 

There are certain objective views to these things. We will not talk about them here. I probably should do one episode about valuation. But in the earlier episodes, I probably have done some of them. If not, you can check out our other podcasts. There’s TFC Stock Geekout, to talk to… our other personalities and experts to discuss a little bit more about this whole valuation idea. 

Overall, I’m looking for a decently sized company, about $10 to $20 billion with a best-in-class product. A product that’s been proven… people love it, people use it. Led by a founder-seeking dominance, eventually helping me to make about 5 to 10x on the investments that I made in this particular stock.

And with that, I’m going to start with the first company that I’m very excited and very… (I’m) getting increasingly interested in it because previously, prices were a little bit too high, a little bit too crazy and that is, number one: Roku. 

Roku started as a company that was selling hardware that you attach to your television to make it smarter. There was a period of time where everybody got very big TVs, very beautiful LED, LCD, whatever D. Very amazing, beautiful colours but they were playing Channel 8 drama or they were playing cable TV. They were limited by a lot of these very expensive content platform when a lot of us on our day-to-day basis have already moved on. 

We are consuming Netflix, we are consuming Spotify, we are consuming YouTube. We’re consuming a lot of these digital content platforms that are not directly attached to your television. It takes a lot of work to plug in the HDMI (High-Definition Multimedia Interface) (cable) and (there’s) always got problem so Roku essentially built something that allow you to plug into your TV and have easy internet connection to all these different streaming platforms. They call it the streaming player. 

Eventually, next generation became… these players were in-built into the TV and now it’s called Roku TV. They continue to sell some of these streaming players and also additional hardware, audioware, controller, all those kinds of things which used to be their dominant business, but times have changed.

Eventually, they become an operating system for television. A lot of big cable TV platforms: Fox News, MSNBC, a lot of all these… Comcast and even Netflix, YouTube, of course all these people, they started to integrate themselvesinto Roku TV, into the Roku TV ecosystem. Instead of building out their own heavy infrastructure to join the streaming wars, a lot of these cable TV platforms, they just use Roku TV.

In other words, instead of building out their own streaming services and streaming platform, which is very complicated and very heavy, they just pay a distribution fee to Roku and they just use their platform and life carries on. A lot of your Comcast and your Fox News and all these guys started to integrate into Roku TV.

Roku TV, with that integration, became more and more of a viable product so more and more people feel like “hey, not bad. I can watch these, do that. Do these, do that on Roku TV.” So more people started buy(ing) Roku TV and Roku TV kept growing. 

Of course, eventually a lot of competitors start to come in, Fire TV by Amazon and of course, Google tried to do their own platform. Apple also tried to do their own platform. There’s even a lot of talk out there that says that most of Disney+’s sales are coming from Roku TV. 

You start to see the beauty of the platform. What started as a hardware became an operating system, started integrating with a lot of these content players and they became the distribution channel and you know what? Now, they are doing their own channel: the Roku channel. I think even Demi Lovato has a talk show coming on with them… she can talk meh? Why don’t they use me? Eventually, I (will) also have a talk show on Roku, but that’s not the discussion for today. 

What I think is interesting is you see the evolution of a hardware, low margin business… hardware business (is) very tight, the margins (are) very low… all the way to operating system, where they start to distribute other people’s (content)… Higher margin business. They built their own channel with all these data that they have collected… of course, because everybody is streaming on their platform. They know what works, they know what kind of content is better which is why Netflix has very high hit rate, because they have all these content being out there, they can test and test and test. 

But Roku even more gao (powerful). They test with other people’s content. Other people pay them money to distribute on their platform and they see what works, now they build their own channel. With their new channel, it gives them more space for ad(vertisement) revenue and you see ad revenue and subscription revenue becoming their main business, no longer the sale of hardware. 

Their ad revenue and platform revenue overall grew 80 over percent, which is pretty nuts, pretty crazy for a company like that. I think they’re right for that trajectory upward, what we call “the hockey stick”. The main disdain out there today is the player sales. Player sales are a bit slower. That means TV sales are slowing down, hardware sales are slowing down. 

And they… Of course they blame distribution, with the Covid and everything, which is fair. Everybody’s blaming it. I don’t think (there) is anything really wrong, but I would say, be warned, be prepared. You don’t want to see them have active users come down. You don’t want to see them have a prolonged supply chain problem that they cannot scale their business. You don’t want to see that, yes. 

But if they can solve it over a medium period of time, which is great, and continue to grow the engagement on their platform, hey, I think this business has a lot more room to grow. As you can already tell, advertisers are coming in. People are willing to try it and, (the) interesting thing is they are doing this whole small, medium business advertisement for TVs, which is a problem that people have been trying to solve for the longest time ever. 

Even till date, your Bee Cheng Hiang, your Osim, they try to do advertisements on TV. It’s a long process. Imagine all the small business have to go in and negotiate, debate, talk. “Hey, can you… How much, blah, blah… which artiste to use… Blah, blah, blah” so it’s very, very, very ma huan (troublesome), very long process and this can be solved possibly with a platform like this where you can just go in, much like you buying YouTube ads, buying Facebook ads, Instagram ads. 

Hey, (it’s an) easy platform for small, medium businesses to buy ads on television. Why not? It’s amazing. I think about 60% of advertisement on Facebook today are from small, medium businesses. This is going to be a very interesting move for Roku going forward.

That’s not to say they have no competition. Like I’ve said, Amazon TV is pretty crazy… Fire TV. They have as big a distribution compared to Roku. They’re pretty near the ballpark, pretty similar. Apple TV is also trying to be in this space. But I will say, consumption patterns are a bit different from iPad and iPhone compared to being on the television. That is the beauty of the business at this moment in time. 

For a company that is seeing this kind of top line growth, platform avenue growing at 80%, overall average revenue per user growing at 50% year-on-year, continue to grow users, continue to grow its stickiness and creating all these interesting platforms as a business and developing itself over the time, but trading at $20 billion, you cannot discount that they have very strong competition. 

Of course they’ve very strong competition: Amazon, Apple, Google, essentially are all the competition. You will see this as a commonality across all the companies that I’m going to talk about today. They all face crazy competition from some of these big tech players but I will say that is exactly why I’m interested in that because they are showing signs that they may be able to be one of the big players in this space or even outrun some of these big guys. 

So that is Roku, the first company that I think it’s pretty interesting at today’s price point. Yeah, we definitely should do a Geekout for Roku. Maybe (we can) get Anthony to geek out or we’ll get someone else to geek out on TFC Stock Geekout. 

Which brings me to the next company that I’m looking at today, at current price point and that is Zendesk. I’ve talked about this and we’ve definitely geeked out about them in TFC Stock Geekout so you should check that out. But yeah, I will come back to you after a word from our sponsor.

So Zendesk currently trades at a market cap of $12 billion with a $1.3 billion revenue… definitely not the cheapest relative to other SaaS (Software as a Service) companies. I would say they are quite a miracle, being able to cordon off a very unsexy part of the business space which is your service. Your help desk service… So, your FAQ (frequently asked question), your chat box, your helpline, all the rubbish that… As a customer, you go to them when there’s problem. 

They have cordoned off this part of the market for many years and till this day, they are the dominant player. I would say, there’re no real competition other than maybe Freshdesk and Zoho. Zoho is a private company, Freshdesk (is) backed by Google.

Interestingly, both Zoho and Freshdesk are private companies found(ed) by Indian founders so you cannot actually directly invest in them. Zendesk probably is your only choice out there if you’re not looking at an integrated, full-scale software company which happened to be their competitors: Microsoft, Salesforce. Those are the guys that are competing.

As with any other startup, they all usually start in a place that is a dark corner of the business world. People don’t really look at these things and they find that there’s no money to be made so nobody really invest in this area. Same with Square, same with Shopify. A lot of them, they started out doing very small things that people think “oh, never mind, don’t need to do.”

Square started with the dongle and look at where they are. Shopify started with the surfing website, look at where they are. Same thing for Zendesk. They started at a very unsexy corner: helpdesk, which is essentially your call center support and all your service… after-service recovery. 

But they are now the dominant player and they’re inching into the big boys, right? So your Microsoft, your Salesforce, they are entering this space where it’s very sales driven. They are trying to provide a whole new suite into their repertoire as a software company. 

In other words, within the space of service support, they are already the leader. They integrate the chat bot, they integrate FAQ, they integrate call center, everything they integrate already. They are already the leader in the space. 

But as they try to expand their total addressable market, entering into the sales CRM (customer relationship management) space, they start to meet a lot of competition like Microsoft, Salesforce, HubSpot, all these other guys that are actively in the space, trying to grapple with this market.

Honestly, recently a lot of this dissonance between buying Surveymonkey or Momentive, whatever they want to call themselves, really stems from this idea of where should we focus on? Should we just focus on helpdesk or should we enter the CRM sales space? I do see some synergies with their recent attempt to acquire Momentive Technologies, which is Surveymonkey. I love their name… Surveymonkey by the way. Who doesn’t use Surveymonkey? All you millennials definitely use it before. 

They’re trying to acquire it to further integrate into their business which to me is a natural trajectory for a lot of this kind of software companies, especially enterprise software. After you have cordoned off a certain market, you have all these customers that you have, you just keep upselling them new things, new things, new things. 

As you keep upselling them new things that they need, you further expand your margins. Every additional upsell doesn’t really require extra marketing and customer acquisition because they are already in your ecosystem. It can be as simple as an additional plugin. “Want to add this? $5 per month more.” Pretty much, that’s the situation. 

That’s the part where I think is very beautiful about Zendesk. Firstly, they’ve already created a very neat suite to do the service support and next, they are doing a lot of these kind of integration and easy upsell within their ecosystem as compared to other enterprise software which they’re selling in package, a lot of integration. Onboarding is very slow. I do believe that a lot of these old enterprise software, they either have to change into a more cloud, self-service arrangement or they will eventually fade out. It’s going to be very hard for them to continue to stay competitive within the space.

Which is why I think Zendesk is in an interesting position, similar to Salesforce. Before it became a big thing, it was dominating the CRM space and it was just upselling its customers again and again. You see the margins keep expanding. I think Zendesk is where it is. It has a best-in-class product and it’s selling a lot of more integration which is why I don’t see a problem with them trying to acquire some of these… especially Surveymonkey and Momentive Technologies. 

It is easier to acquire a proven product and upsell, rather than build your own product. It takes a long, long time. They are definitely learning to milk their dominant position in the space they are in and also to double down on their self-service capability where they build their product to onboard themselves.

I think those two are a big problem in enterprise space and you see a bunch of people that are solving it. But that is not to say they have no big competition. Microsoft is their big competition, Salesforce is their big competition. They are going to these guys’ space. 

I would say as with every other guys that we are talking about today, they all face very big competition which is why to me, they’re only trading at a price like that. Once they have crossed the hurdle and continue to show that they can continue to expand and grow with their customers, especially in enterprise software, what you want to see is that they can continue to grow, to provide for bigger and bigger customers and continue to grow with their customers because a lot of service enterprise softwares, eventually they run into a problem where the customers grow beyond the software. 

When you start, you want to go for the cheap one, the easy one, easy to onboard, easy to use. But eventually, if it doesn’t work, then you switch out. You go into a more complicated software suite. You are seeing that Zendesk is running along with their customer. It looks pretty well. Extension is well and they’re getting bigger and bigger customers.

Now, they have about 37% of their customers are decently sized customers so this is a very good sign. I’m not particularly excited about the CRM part of their software because I think that part (is) very competitive. Maybe they have a easier UI (user interface) and all that. Okay, good on them. Great, if they can upsell to their customers.

But I think what is important is as more and more companies go digital, as more and more digital payments are being done and a lot of companies have these kinds of digital access or digital storefront, more and more of them will need a service support. They will need the service backend. They will need this kind of integration to increase their customer experience. 

I do think Zendesk has a best-in-class product today and continues to grow their product suite. So even if the CRM doesn’t really work out, not bad… I still think the service support system is growing and will continue to grow and do pretty fine.

That is where I’m looking at it, rather than (being) very hopeful for “oh, CRM going to compete with Salesforce”, and all of that. I think to become a $50 billion company, for them, they just need to do very well in their service suites and continue to grow their service suite, continue to grow the extra extensions that their customer needs. 

So yeah, that’s my view of Zendesk as a company. I think I did a Geekout with Thomas on TFC Stock Geekout, you should check it out. And (this) bring(s) me to the third company for today. It’s not really in the $20 billion range, but it is Spotify. 

Spotify, during the time of recording, is somewhere about $36 billion range in its market cap. Eventually, I think it will hover around there for a while, as it goes through a lot of problems that it has. Recently, the reports came out saying that, “oh yeah, they got four hundred over million users but growth is slowing, blah, blah, blah”. You see a lot of mixed reports out there about Spotify. 

Some people say, “oh yeah, Netflix is coming in, TikTok is coming in, YouTube music”. Everybody is trying to fight them. Exactly, same with Zendesk, same with Roku. All the big guys are trying to fight them which is why it’s interesting because they have proven that there is a market to be made, there’s money to be made and the big guys want to come in and take this market share from them. 

But the interesting thing about Spotify is they have successfully managed a lot of these big record labels for a very long time. They are not easy to deal with, your Warner music and Universal music. You think they’re easy to deal with? No, they’re not easy to deal with. Back and forth, always have a lot of problems.

I would say that they’re pretty successful in dealing with these guys: a dealership arrangement, percentages, blah, blah, blah. A lot of these things moving back and forth. I will say even if the other big distributors like Amazon, Apple, they all want to come into this business, they also have to learn to grapple with these big label producers so same sh*t, different smell. Different people handling the same sh*t. 

It will not be an easy play for them either but Spotify has recognised that. They recognise it and they’re moving towards more independent creators. But independent creators a bit flagging them… don’t really want them, “Spotify don’t pay a lot, blah, blah, blah”.

It’s a bit of a chicken-egg issue. Spotify now has to grow multiple fronts. They have to grow the content front, they have to grow the technology front and they have to grow the customer front. They have to choose to prioritize. 

I would say for the content front, maybe not the best situation for now. They’re not paying their content creators the best. In fact, they’re probably one of the worst, in terms of paying audio content creators. It’s a problem there, I hope that they can solve it. 

But on the consumer front, you see them continue to grow consumers, which is great. A lot of users: four hundred million users, 180 million subscribers. Hey, these subscribers… The revenue that come(s) is very significant, can do a lot of things. They are cashflow positive, by the way. For streaming company, at cashflow positive, three hundred over billion of free cash flow, I think that’s pretty good. In other words, if they wanted to take on more debt or burn more money to continue to grow, they can but I do think they are relatively prudent in their attempt. 

Recently, they have take(n) on some debt to integrate the kind of technology software. As a fellow podcaster, I can tell you, the technology in the podcasting space is jialat (in a dire situation), very, very bad. I have to pay one provider to host my content. I have to distribute it into other distribution platforms and I have to use another software to integrate advertisements. I have to use another software to check my ratings and where am I and all that. A lot of these things are very problematic. 

I’m essentially stuck with the kind of platforms that I have. I cannot interact with my audience directly. If I want to do premium subscription, I have to lead all of you into another podcast platform to say, “hey, use this weird podcast platform to pay premium subscription”. It’s like, “wah piang (an exclamation expressing dismay)”. 

It is very problematic in this space and I see Spotify as the only player at this point in time trying to solve this problem. Every other person in this space, whether is it Amazon, whether is it Google, whether is it Apple, they’re all just trying to work on content and they’re all just trying to work on user. It’s trying to get more users and get some content of their own. 

But Spotify is the only one that is doing a lot of these audio integration in terms of technology, trying to make it easier for podcasting, trying to make it easier for a lot of audio creators to come in. I think this is the interesting part and for a lot of people that don’t recognize the difference… I’m sure you guys recognize the difference because you’re an audio consumer. 

There are fundamental differences between the way people consume video and the way people consume audio. It’s not the same. Please tell all your friends, your kakis (buddies), your boss, please stop telling me to just “extract the audio file and (it will) become a podcast”.

This does not work that way. We edit things differently. Definitely, Spotify is going through some problems in terms of shrinking margins, in terms of increased competition. Because they want to stay relevant, they have to do a lot of these things, they are taking on more debt but you see their dominance in the space that they’re in in a sense of they have a lot of big content creators with them because they buy them out: Gimlet, Joe Rogan. There will be no other Joe Rogan at least for the next 5 years, 10 years. 

Pretty much (that is) how a lot of these things work. You get a big celebrity, you get their following and the other platform cannot use it. You block them out. And of course, they are also growing a lot of their tech platform, which I think it’s the beauty, which I think is the sexy part of their business, where eventually you can see more and more independent audio creators to come in and monetize and do their thing, similar to Youtube.

That’s where I hope things will move towards and I see that kind of integration that Spotify is trying to do. It’s very messy now. To be fair as a creator, I tell you, it’s very messy and I see a lot of problems but I hope, eventually we’ll get there. Spotify is the only guy investing in the tech integration strategy.

For me, as long as Spotify can continue to grow and retain their users, integrate the creation platform and eventually integrate ads and all that, which they’re all trying to do, it will create a lot more possibility for the company and a lot more money to be made for the company. Of course, when ad integration comes into the platform, it makes it a bit hard for content creators like us, the ones that already have sponsors to make money because it will commoditize listenership and all that. But there’s a discussion for another day. More importantly, I do think Spotify is right for that kind of turn and that kind of growth. 

So yeah, these are the few companies that I am looking at. I think I would add more positions. I will keep observing as how the market play out. I will say that I do think the market will continue to recede a little bit but some of these companies have already came out a lot from their peak so it’s (a) good price at this point in time. 

Instead of looking at per share data, instead of really screwing into “oh, revenue never grow as much or free cash flow slow down or, margin never grow as much”, try to look at these growth companies as a whole company. If today you have $30 billion, you have a $100 billion, who will you buy? Why will you buy Zendesk at $10 billion? Why would you buy Roku at $20 billion? You got to ask yourself in a bigger scale, how do you think this whole business will play out?

Can they continue to grow and become dominant in the space they are in? That is definitely for me a little bit more on the yes side. If not, I will not be looking at them. But for you, it may be a different view altogether. 

Come to our Telegram group, talk to us, discuss with us. How do you see some of these things and hey, check out TFC Stock Geekout as we prepare our reboot for the Friday Geekout segments. It’s going to come back very soon. You should join TFC Stock Geekout. 

With that, I hope you learnt something useful today. See ya.

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Okay… So today I talk about some of the stocks that I believe has a chance of becoming a multibagger like maybe 3x, 5x, maybe even 10x. You never know. But I have some assumptions that I made… I realized that it takes a lot more than just this episode to talk about. 

So next week… next week, we’re going to talk a little bit about growth stocks. Trying to understand growth stocks and what are we really trying to look out for when looking at growth stocks. Because everybody only talks about the narrative, “oh, this company blah, blah, blah”, say until like very shiok (feel good). But there must be some basis like what are you looking at when you look at a growth stock? Because when you pick growth stocks, you are really trying to look for the ground breaker, the home run.

You’re not just trying to do a 10, 15% year-on-year. You’re not trying to perform alongside the market. You want to find the home runner. That’s pretty much the idea behind stock picking and the growth stock space. So yes, I will share with you some of the big ideas that I think a lot of people have conveniently forgotten in next week’s episode. See ya.