On April 9, 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump ignited a firestorm by posting “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT” on his Truth Social platform at 9:37 a.m. ET, just hours before announcing a 90-day pause on tariffs for most countries (excluding China). The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged nearly 8%, recovering $4 trillion in market value lost during days of tariff-induced panic. Critics, including Democratic lawmakers and ethics experts, allege this sequence resembles market manipulation or insider trading, while Trump’s team insists it was a presidential duty to “reassure markets”
Key details:
Trump’s DJT initials matched the ticker symbol of Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), whose stock rose 22% post-announcement
Tariff context: The pause followed his April 2 “Liberation Day” tariffs (10% baseline + 60+ country-specific hikes), which triggered a 10% S&P 500 drop and recession fears
Billionaire windfalls: Trump later boasted about associates like Charles Schwab gaining $2.5 billion in a single day, fueling suspicions of cronyism
Under U.S. law, insider trading requires trading on material non-public information in breach of fiduciary duty. Market manipulation involves intentionally distorting prices. Here’s the debate:
Public vs. Private Information: Trump’s “buy” call was public, but critics argue he had undisclosed knowledge of the tariff pause when posting. He later claimed the decision was made “over the last few days” but finalised “early [Wednesday] morning”. Legal experts like Adam Pritchard (University of Michigan) note public statements alone don’t constitute insider trading unless private tips were shared
Market Manipulation Risks: Richard Painter, former Bush ethics lawyer, argues Trump’s posts could artificially inflate markets, exposing him to accusations of manipulation 19. The SEC defines manipulation as “artificially affecting supply/demand,” but proving intent is difficult
Trump’s Conflicts of Interest: Trump’s wealth is tied to TMTG (ticker: DJT), which soared post-announcement. While he didn’t explicitly promote the stock, the initials’ overlap raises ethical concerns
Congressional Trades: Democrats like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez called for transparency on lawmakers’ stock purchases ahead of the surge, citing a May 15 disclosure deadline
Legal experts note the complexities of pursuing any case against a sitting president.
Kathleen Clark, a government ethics law expert at Washington University School of Law, said Trump's post would have been investigated in other administrations but is not likely to trigger any regulatory action now. "He's sending the message that he can effectively and with impunity manipulate the market," she said. "As in: Watch this space for future stock tips."
The key question is whether Trump's "buy" recommendation, made hours before his market-moving announcement, constitutes illegal insider trading or market manipulation.
According to US securities law, insider trading involves trading stocks based on material, non-public information. While presidents aren't typically subject to insider trading laws when making policy decisions, the situation becomes murky when:
"He's loving this, this control over markets, but he better be careful," said Richard Painter, a former White House ethics lawyer, noting that securities law prohibits trading on insider information or helping others do so. "The people who bought when they saw that post made a lot of money."
For Singaporean investors and businesses, the fallout from Trump's tariff policies has been significant. Singapore was hit with a 10% tariff, despite having a free-trade agreement with the United States.
Prime Minister Lawrence Wong expressed disappointment with the tariffs, stating they are "not actions done to a friend." The government has formed a task force to monitor the impact on businesses and workers, as the tariffs are expected to dampen global growth and hit Singapore's export-reliant sectors.
According to a Reuters report, Trump's tariff policies have created gaps in international trade that could benefit some countries, with analysts suggesting that Singapore might see additional export opportunities in certain sectors.
However, the overall economic outlook remains concerning. "The tariffs are expected to dampen global growth in the near term, which will hit external demand for Singapore's export-reliant sectors," reported Channel News Asia.
For Singapore, a trade-dependent economy, the implications:
Supply Chain Risks: The U.S.-China tariff escalation (now 125% on Chinese imports) could disrupt regional exports, particularly electronics and chemicals routed through Singapore
CPF & Investor Exposure: Singaporean investors holding U.S. equities or CPF-approved funds linked to the S&P 500 may face heightened volatility. The “Trump Pump” underscores the risks of geopolitical shocks to retirement portfolios. Monitor their performance closely and consider diversification.
Beware of political market signals: Trump's demonstrated willingness to signal market moves before policy announcements creates both opportunities and risks for investors who follow his social media
Singapore's trade-dependent economy faces headwinds: With global trade disruptions likely to continue, companies heavily reliant on US markets may face challenges
Look for trade diversion opportunities: As global supply chains adjust to tariffs, some Singaporean companies may benefit from trade diversion effects
As this controversy unfolds, Singaporean investors and businesses must remain vigilant and adaptable. The confluence of market manipulation concerns, policy volatility, and global trade disruptions creates an especially challenging environment.
The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs has created more uncertainty rather than resolving trade tensions. Business leaders and investors are left wondering what happens after the 90-day period expires.
The most recent inflation data showed the US consumer price index fell 0.1% in March, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%, down from 2.8% in February. However, economists predict that Trump's tariff policies could push inflation higher. According to CNBC, some money managers forecast a 4% full-year 2025 inflation rate due to U.S. tariffs and retaliation by other nations.
Post-tariff turmoil, analysts note unease among some Trump supporters. Anecdotal reports suggest frustration over 401(k) losses during the April 2–9 market plunge, though hard data is scarce. However, Trump’s base largely remains loyal, viewing the tariff pause as a “negotiation win” against China
According to a Fox News poll, his approval rating has declined, with Americans' concerns over the economy, inflation, and tariffs fueling the downward trend.
A YouGov/Economist poll found that the majority of voters (72%) think Trump's tariffs on all U.S. trading partners would hurt the economy in the short term.
More tellingly, some Trump supporters are publicly expressing regret. BuzzFeed reported multiple instances of MAGA supporters expressing dismay over the tariffs, with one writing: "The 34% tariffs threaten our survival. We voted for you, believing in America First. Please consider us."
On social media platforms, the hashtag #TariffRegret has gained traction, with former supporters lamenting stock market losses and increased prices.
While evidence of illegal activity remains elusive, the episode highlights systemic risks of leaders wielding market-moving power. For Singaporeans, it’s a reminder to diversify investments and monitor U.S. policy shifts closely. As Senator Adam Schiff stated, “The public has a right to know”.
However, the more immediate concern for Singaporeans is how to navigate an increasingly unpredictable global economic landscape shaped by policy decisions that may be influenced by personal financial interests rather than sound economic principles.
Tune in to our next episode on Chills with TFC where we will have seasoned investors debate it out and share practical actions for investors to weatherproof their portfolio.
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